What moved markets in the last 24 hours

As the new week gets underway, U.S. macro and market attention is centered on the upcoming inflation prints, Treasury supply, and the implications for the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. With Fed officials in their pre‑meeting blackout period, the debate is being driven primarily by data, positioning, and cross‑asset signals rather than fresh central‑bank guidance.

Equities

Trading over the past day reflected a familiar push‑and‑pull between growth and cyclical narratives. Investors balanced enthusiasm around AI and productivity gains against concerns that higher real yields could continue to compress equity multiples if inflation progress stalls. Defensive sectors remain a favored ballast when rate volatility picks up, while energy and industrials are sensitive to moves in oil and global demand headlines.

Factor‑wise, quality balance sheets and consistent free‑cash‑flow generators remain in demand during periods of rates uncertainty, while higher‑beta pockets tend to trade with swings in rate expectations and liquidity. The post‑Labor Day calendar also ushers in a dense corporate conference season, which can produce incremental guidance updates and shift leadership within sectors.

Rates

Treasury price action over the last day was framed by two forces: imminent inflation data and this week’s coupon auctions. Front‑end yields remain sensitive to the near‑term inflation trajectory, while longer maturities reflect a mix of term premium, growth expectations, and supply. Auction outcomes for 3‑, 10‑, and 30‑year notes/bonds this week will be closely watched for demand depth and any concession dynamics into the prints.

With the Fed in blackout, market‑implied probabilities for the policy path hinge on whether the next CPI and PPI readings endorse a steady disinflation path or point to stickier components such as shelter, core services ex‑housing, and energy pass‑through.

U.S. dollar and FX

The dollar’s tone in the past 24 hours tracked relative rate differentials and risk appetite. A firmer path in U.S. real yields or a cautious equity tone typically supports the greenback, while benign inflation and calm rates volatility can allow cyclicals and higher‑beta FX to breathe. Cross‑currents from Europe and Asia—particularly energy prices and China‑linked risk sentiment—continue to filter into dollar demand.

Commodities

Energy remains a macro swing factor. Traders are watching refinery utilization, gasoline cracks, and Gulf Coast weather risks at the peak of hurricane season for potential supply disruptions. A sustained rise in crude can lift headline inflation and complicate the near‑term disinflation narrative, while a pullback would ease margin pressure for transport and consumer‑facing companies. In precious metals, gold tends to pivot on real yields and the dollar, serving as a hedge when growth or geopolitical worries rise.

Credit

Primary issuance typically accelerates in early September as companies tap receptive markets after the summer lull. Over the last 24 hours, secondary spreads were largely a function of rates moves and the anticipated new‑issue calendar. A well‑digested burst of investment‑grade supply would underscore healthy demand; conversely, any indigestion or wider concessions could spill into broader risk sentiment.

Policy and fiscal watch

With the fiscal year ending later this month, budget negotiations and potential funding headlines remain a background risk for rates and growth expectations. Markets are also attentive to any trade or industrial policy developments that could affect supply chains, capex plans, and sectoral leadership.

Key themes to watch

  • Inflation mix: Whether services disinflation continues and how energy and goods components evolve will shape front‑end pricing.
  • Term premium and supply: Auction outcomes and dealer balance sheet capacity can influence long‑duration yields independently of the policy path.
  • Earnings micro: Conference commentary and pre‑announcements may recalibrate margin and capex expectations ahead of Q3 reporting.
  • Liquidity and volatility: Post‑holiday participation often lifts volumes; how that interacts with data surprises will drive cross‑asset volatility.
  • Seasonality: September has historically shown choppier equity performance, making risk management and hedging a focus.

7‑day outlook

Macro data and events

  • Consumer inflation (CPI) for August due midweek: The headline and core readings—particularly shelter and core services ex‑housing—are pivotal for September Fed expectations. A softer print would reinforce a “higher for not much longer” narrative; a firm print could keep real yields elevated.
  • Producer inflation (PPI) late week: A check on pipeline price pressures and margins. Watch core measures and trade services.
  • Weekly jobless claims (Thursday): Timely read on labor market cooling and any emerging layoff trends.
  • University of Michigan Sentiment (prelim, Friday): Consumer inflation expectations—both 1‑year and 5‑to‑10‑year—are key for the Fed’s confidence in disinflation.
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism (early week): Hiring plans, compensation intentions, and pricing power among small firms help triangulate wage and services inflation.
  • Treasury auctions: Multiple coupon sales across the curve will test demand; tailing or strong covers could sway duration sentiment.
  • Energy inventories (midweek): EIA weekly data on crude, gasoline, and distillates matter for near‑term headline inflation path.

Cross‑asset scenarios to consider

  • Disinflation continues: Front‑end yields ease, curve modestly steepens, dollar softens, cyclicals and small caps catch a bid; credit primary remains active with contained concessions.
  • Sticky services or energy flare‑up: Front‑end reprices higher for longer, duration underperforms, dollar firms; growth/momentum factors may wobble; credit spreads drift wider into heavy supply.
  • Clean auctions and calm vol: Term premium compresses at the margin, supporting duration‑sensitive equities and REITs; gold softens with higher real yields offset by risk‑on tone.
  • Risk‑off shock (exogenous headline): Dollar and duration find haven demand; credit and high‑beta equities underperform; vol sellers step back, widening ranges.

What professional desks will monitor

  • The breadth of equity rallies or pullbacks—advance/decline lines and equal‑weight vs cap‑weight dispersion.
  • Rates vol versus equity vol—whether MOVE and VIX decouple, signaling cross‑asset stress or relief.
  • Credit primary pricing power—new‑issue concessions and day‑one performance as a barometer of risk appetite.
  • Dollar liquidity around data releases—signs of outsized moves in EMFX that could feed back into global risk.
  • Energy curves—gasoline cracks and diesel tightness as inputs to near‑term inflation and industrial margins.

Bottom line

The next 24–72 hours are about inflation confirmation and how smoothly the Treasury market absorbs supply in the absence of fresh Fed commentary. If data reinforce disinflation and auctions clear well, risk assets should find support and rates volatility can subside. A sticky inflation surprise or strained auction outcomes would likely keep real yields firm, favoring defensives and the dollar while tightening financial conditions into mid‑month.