With summer giving way to early fall across America’s farm belt, weather is once again dictating day-to-day decisions in the fields. The following report synthesizes national patterns relevant to agriculture and provides a planning-forward, seven-day outlook by region. For site-specific, real-time observations and alerts, consult the National Weather Service and your state mesonet.

Past 24 Hours — What Mattered for Fieldwork and Crops

Over the last day, typical mid-September patterns produced a mix of opportunities and challenges across key production zones:

• Corn Belt and Upper Midwest: Many areas saw scattered, fast-moving showers and thunderstorms along weak boundaries, leaving rainfall highly variable at the field scale. Where storms missed, soils continued to firm up, supporting early harvest and silage chopping.
• Northern/Central Plains: Breezy, dry periods favored small-grain harvesting and fall fieldwork, though localized showers developed near frontal zones. Fire danger can briefly elevate where winds align with low humidity.
• Southern Plains and Texas: Warm to hot, largely dry conditions maintained high evapotranspiration rates, keeping late-season irrigated crops thirsty and rangelands under stress where moisture is limited.
• Delta and Lower Mississippi Valley: Humid air supported hit-or-miss downpours. Cotton and peanut producers remained watchful for boll rot and leaf spot pressure where rain persisted.
• Southeast: Gulf and Atlantic moisture sustained scattered afternoon storms, interrupting fieldwork in some locales but offering recharge for pastures and newly seeded forages.
• Southwest and Four Corners: Late-season monsoon-type storms continued in favored high terrain, with localized heavy rain on burn scars and dry washes; most major valleys stayed largely dry.
• California: The Central Valley trended seasonably dry with warm afternoons, aiding nut shaking and late specialty crop harvest while maintaining high irrigation demand.
• Pacific Northwest: Mostly light precipitation brushed the Cascades and parts of the interior at times, with many lowlands remaining on the drier side; temperatures near seasonal norms supported small-grain transport and fall seeding windows.
• Northeast: A couple of weak disturbances brought patchy showers in spots; windowed dry hours still benefited haylage and produce harvest between interruptions.

Seven-Day U.S. Agricultural Weather Outlook

Overall setup: Expect a changeable pattern with one or two frontal waves migrating from the Northern Plains into the Midwest and East, while warmer, drier conditions hold longer across much of the southern tier. Late-season moisture remains possible in the Southwest and along the Gulf/Southeast coastlines on select days. Confidence is moderate for temperatures and moderate-to-variable for rainfall placement due to convective uncertainties.

Key Themes at a Glance

• Temperatures: Near to above normal for the southern half of the nation; near to slightly below normal at times across the Northern Rockies/Upper Midwest behind frontal passages.
• Precipitation: Greatest odds for measurable rain from the Northern Plains through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast as fronts progress; daily storm chances continue along the Gulf Coast and Southeast; spotty monsoon-type storms linger over the Southwest high terrain. Drier overall along much of the West Coast and interior California.
• Fieldwork Windows: Best, most consistent windows in California, the interior Northwest lowlands, portions of the Central High Plains, and intervals in the western Corn Belt between fronts. Shorter, more interrupted windows in the Delta/Southeast and along the eventual track of Midwest/Eastern fronts.
• Risks to Monitor: Localized heavy downpours and short-fuse runoff near slow-moving storms; brief strong wind gusts with any severe cells; heat stress for livestock in the Southern Plains/Gulf Coast; isolated early-season chill in high-elevation Rockies/Intermountain West on clear nights.

Regional Planning Guidance (Days 1–7)

Upper Midwest and Corn Belt (Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan)

• Temperatures: Near normal north to slightly warmer south; brief cool-downs behind each front followed by rebounds.
• Precipitation: One to two rounds of showers/storms likely as waves traverse the region. Rainfall will be uneven—expect some counties to receive soaking rains while neighboring fields see lighter totals.
• Fieldwork: Intermittent delays where storms pass; otherwise, solid windows for early corn/soy harvest in western sectors between frontal passages. Consider prioritizing fields prone to lodging or quality loss ahead of the wetter periods.
• Crop/Livestock: Disease pressure may uptick for late soybeans where dew points stay elevated; post-frontal air will help drydown. Modest STS/white mold risk where canopy remains dense and showery.

Northern Plains and High Plains (Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Nebraska, northern Kansas)

• Temperatures: Near to slightly below normal at times after frontal passages, otherwise seasonable.
• Precipitation: Periodic light to moderate rounds, most favored in the Dakotas and Nebraska with frontal lift; many locales remain on the drier side between systems.
• Fieldwork: Generally favorable for small-grain transport and fall tillage, with brief pauses during showers. Windy intervals could complicate spraying—watch gust forecasts.
• Crop/Livestock: Rangeland improvement remains patchy; cool nights in high terrain could flirt with light frost in sheltered spots if skies clear and winds relax.

Central/Southern Plains (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Panhandle and points south)

• Temperatures: Above normal warmth persists, with hot afternoons and warm nights in the south.
• Precipitation: Limited, mainly isolated storms or brief frontal showers north; many areas stay dry.
• Fieldwork: Long, dependable windows for sorghum/early cotton operations but plan for dust management and elevated fire danger on breezy days.
• Crop/Livestock: High evapotranspiration will keep irrigation demand elevated; provide abundant shade and water for livestock during peak heat.

Delta and Mid-South (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, western Tennessee)

• Temperatures: Near to above normal; warm, humid nights.
• Precipitation: Daily spotty storms remain possible; localized heavy downpours in slow movers.
• Fieldwork: Stop-and-go for cotton and soy harvest; plan operations around afternoon convection windows.
• Crop/Livestock: Maintain boll protection and defoliation timing flexibility; monitor peanut leaf spot and white mold pressure after rainy hours.

Southeast (Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, Florida)

• Temperatures: Seasonably warm to hot, with coastal humidity.
• Precipitation: Scattered afternoon/evening storms most days; coastal areas and the Florida Peninsula have higher daily odds.
• Fieldwork: Harvest windows narrow in storm-prone corridors; inland areas enjoy longer morning windows before convection builds.
• Crop/Livestock: Cotton boll rot risk remains where wet spells persist; hay curing continues to be a challenge—target quick-dry windows and consider tedding.

Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Appalachians

• Temperatures: Near normal overall with modest day-to-day swings.
• Precipitation: Frontal showers/storms mid-period and again late; rainfall distribution will be uneven.
• Fieldwork: Plan around two likely interruption periods; valley locations get longer drying between episodes.
• Crop/Livestock: Orchard operations may see brief downtime; pasture growth benefits from occasional rain and moderate temperatures.

Northeast (Mid-Atlantic to New England)

• Temperatures: Seasonable; brief cool pushes behind fronts.
• Precipitation: One or two rounds of showers/storms; coastal locales could see enhanced rainfall if a coastal wave develops along the boundary.
• Fieldwork: Windows between systems suitable for haylage and produce harvest; plan around higher humidity and dew-laden mornings.
• Crop/Livestock: Disease pressure modest where dew persists; ventilation vital for dairy during humid nights.

Southwest and Four Corners

• Temperatures: Near to slightly above normal in deserts; cooler in high terrain.
• Precipitation: Isolated to scattered high-terrain storms on several afternoons; valleys mostly dry.
• Fieldwork: Generally favorable for harvest and hay; watch for localized washouts or access issues after heavy mountain downpours.
• Crop/Livestock: Provide heat mitigation in lower deserts; post-storm mosquito emergence possible near irrigated acreage.

California (Central Valley, Coastal zones, Desert)

• Temperatures: Warm afternoons inland, cooler marine influence near the coast; seasonable diurnal swings.
• Precipitation: Predominantly dry.
• Fieldwork: Excellent run for nut shaking/sweeping and late specialty crop harvest; dust control advisable.
• Crop/Livestock: High irrigation demand persists; monitor vine and orchard blocks for heat-related stress in exposed sites.

Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho)

• Temperatures: Near seasonal; cooler spells with passing weak systems.
• Precipitation: Light showers possible mainly near/over higher terrain; many basins remain largely dry.
• Fieldwork: Good overall; brief pauses in foothills and mountain valleys during showers.
• Crop/Livestock: Fall seeding windows remain favorable; monitor for short-lived fire weather concerns east of the Cascades on breezy, dry days.

Northern Rockies and Intermountain West

• Temperatures: Seasonable to slightly cool with clear, crisp nights at elevation.
• Precipitation: Spotty light showers near fronts and over mountains; many valleys stay dry.
• Fieldwork: Solid harvest windows with only brief weather interruptions.
• Crop/Livestock: First light frosts of the season possible in sheltered high-country valleys if skies clear and winds decouple overnight.

Tropical and Coastal Watch

Peak Atlantic season continues. While no specific storm track is detailed here, producers from the western Gulf Coast to the Southeast and up the Atlantic coastline should monitor official forecasts for any disturbances that could enhance rain or winds late in the period. Tropical moisture—even without a named system—can briefly increase rainfall rates along the Gulf and Southeast coasts.

Agronomic Implications and Actions

• Harvest Timing: In the Midwest and East, prioritize fields ahead of the next frontal wave; in the West and southern Plains, use extended dry windows to push harvest and residue management.
• Crop Protection: Target spray applications in morning lulls with lower wind and dew; anticipate limited afternoon opportunities in the Southeast/Delta due to convection.
• Livestock Heat Management: Provide shade, ventilation, and cool water for herds in the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Florida, and desert Southwest during hot afternoons.
• Irrigation: Expect high daily evapotranspiration demand in California, desert Southwest, and Southern Plains; moderate demand in the Midwest outside of post-frontal cool spells.
• Disease/Pest Pressure: Elevated foliar disease potential persists in humid belts (Delta/Southeast, parts of the eastern Corn Belt). Scout after rainy intervals and adjust fungicide decisions to growth stage and economics.
• Soil and Erosion: Where storms train along boundaries, protect vulnerable slopes and waterways; clean inlets and ensure field access routes are passable.

Confidence and Uncertainty

• Temperature: Moderate confidence in warmth across the southern tier and periodic cool shots in the northern tier.
• Precipitation: Moderate confidence in at least one frontal rain episode across the Plains-to-East corridor; low-to-moderate confidence in exact storm placement and totals due to convective variability.
• Tropical Influence: Low predictability beyond several days for any Gulf/Atlantic disturbances; monitor official guidance daily if operating in coastal or near-coastal counties.

Bottom Line for Producers

• Midwest/East: Work between fronts; expect a couple of interruptions from showers/storms over the next week.
• South: Warm-to-hot, humid pattern persists with daily storm chances near the Gulf and Southeast, drier biases farther west.
• West: Broadly dry with localized high-terrain showers in the Southwest; excellent harvest windows in California and much of the interior Northwest.

Keep daily tabs on local forecasts and radar to fine-tune field timing, as small shifts in frontal position will drive large differences in rainfall at the county and field scale.