NEW YORK (Aug 14, 2025) — A hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index kept Wall Street cautious Thursday. The S&P 500 eked out a fresh closing high (+0.03%), while the Dow (-0.02%) and Nasdaq (-0.01%) were little changed. Traders trimmed near-term Fed cut bets as Treasury yields climbed: 10-year 4.289% (↑ 4.9 bps), 2-year 3.732% (↑ 4.5 bps).
Macro driver: July PPI rose 0.9% m/m, the biggest gain in three years, stoking margin concerns and nudging rate-cut hopes lower. The dollar firmed (USD/JPY 147.75, DXY higher), while Brent crude settled $66.84 (↑ 1.84%), WTI $63.96 (↑ 2.09%). Gold eased (spot $3,335, -0.57%).
7-Day Outlook (Aug 15–21, ET)
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Fri, Aug 15 — Retail Sales (8:30 a.m.): First read on July consumer demand; a key swing factor for rate-cut odds.
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Fri, Aug 15 — Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.): Fresh look at factory output and capacity use.
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Tue, Aug 19 — Housing Starts/Permits (8:30 a.m.): Construction pulse; July report due.
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Wed, Aug 20 — FOMC Minutes (2:00 p.m.): Color on the July 29–30 policy debate and tolerance for inflation upside.
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Thu, Aug 21 — Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.): Labor-market temperature check; released at the same time every Thursday.
Trading bias: After today’s hot PPI, expect range-bound equities with data-dependent swings; yields biased higher if Retail Sales/Industrial Production surprise to the upside; USD supported on strong prints; oil tracking geopolitics and demand signals; gold sensitive to real-yield moves.
