Note: This report focuses on developments, themes, and the scheduled macroeconomic docket. It does not include real-time price prints or intraday figures.

What drove the US macro and markets over the past 24 hours

In the past day, US markets traded around a dense late-October macro and earnings backdrop. Positioning centered on how incoming data will refine the growth–inflation mix into year‑end, while corporate results from large-cap technology and cyclicals influenced factor leadership and sector dispersion. Month‑end rebalancing considerations and expectations for early‑November policy and supply events also shaped risk appetite across equities, rates, the dollar, credit, and commodities.

Equities: earnings, AI spend, and macro sensitivity

Investors sifted through a heavy slate of corporate reports, with particular focus on megacap technology’s AI infrastructure spend, cloud growth trajectories, and margin guidance. Cyclicals remained sensitive to signs of demand resilience in goods versus services. Defensive sectors (healthcare, staples, utilities) moved largely on rate sensitivity and relative value rather than idiosyncratic catalysts.

Volatility markets reflected hedging into the data cluster at month‑end and the turn of the month. Options flow showed demand for short-dated protection around the major releases, a typical pattern when GDP, inflation, and labor data concentrate in a narrow window.

Rates: data tug-of-war and supply overhang

US Treasury trading stayed keyed to two forces: the incoming growth/inflation prints and the outlook for coupon supply. Traders focused on how quarterly growth composition (real final sales versus inventories) and wage metrics might affect the path of policy-sensitive maturities, while the intermediate and long end remained attuned to duration supply expectations ahead of next week’s Treasury refunding announcement. Breakeven inflation and real yields continued to serve as the market’s filter for any perceived shift in the disinflation trend.

US dollar and FX

The dollar’s range reflected relative-rate dynamics and growth differentials. The trade‑weighted dollar remained sensitive to moves in US real yields and to whether US data signal resilient domestic demand versus a softer global backdrop. Safe‑haven demand ebbed and flowed with headline risk but stayed secondary to macro releases.

Credit: primary pause into month‑end

Investment‑grade issuance was measured as issuers avoided printing into the densest part of the data calendar. Secondary spreads in both IG and HY tracked equity tone and rate-vol path more than micro credit news, with dispersion widening where earnings or guidance surprised. Loans remained supported by carry while HY traders watched ETF flows for signs of de‑risking or dip‑buying into month‑end.

Commodities: growth versus geopolitical inputs

Oil price action reflected a balance between macro demand expectations and ongoing geopolitical risk premia. Gold continued to trade as a function of real yields and dollar moves, with an overlay of hedging demand into the data cluster.

Macro developments that mattered

Advance Q3 GDP: what the market watched

The advance estimate for Q3 GDP typically lands in late October and is a key input for rate and risk pricing. Beyond the headline growth rate, markets focused on:

  • Nominal versus real growth: implications for revenue growth and the inflation impulse.
  • Core PCE price index (quarterly): the policy‑relevant inflation gauge embedded in GDP.
  • Consumption breadth: goods versus services, and durability of household demand.
  • Real final sales to private domestic purchasers: a cleaner read on underlying demand excluding inventories and net exports.

Labor market: weekly claims

Initial and continuing jobless claims provided a timely checkpoint on labor tightness. Markets remained sensitive to any inflection in layoffs or duration of unemployment that could foreshadow a slower hiring pace into November.

Wages and inflation costs: Employment Cost Index and PCE

The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q3 and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report are clustered at month‑end. Investors watched:

  • ECI’s wage and benefit trends for signals on services inflation stickiness.
  • Core PCE month‑on‑month and 3‑month annualized for momentum checks on disinflation.
  • Personal income and spending splits, including real spending on goods versus services.

Policy backdrop

Rate‑path expectations were guided by how the growth/inflation mix evolves rather than by new policy surprises. The front end of the curve remained anchored by perceived policy rates over the next few meetings, while longer maturities reflected a blend of term premium dynamics and the expected coupon mix in November’s refunding announcement.

How the pieces fit together

The core debate into year‑end remains whether the US can sustain moderate real growth while inflation trends lower, and how quickly that combination might translate into a change in the policy stance. For markets, that translates into:

  • Equities: sensitivity to earnings breadth and guidance revisions alongside the path of real yields.
  • Rates: two‑way risk around supply (refundings, auctions) and data (growth and wage metrics).
  • Dollar: driven by relative growth and real‑rate spreads versus major peers.
  • Credit: carry remains supportive, but dispersion rises where margins compress or leverage creeps up.

Seven‑day outlook: key events and what to watch

The following are the scheduled US macro events and themes most likely to steer markets over the next week. Exact release times are typically 8:30 a.m. ET unless noted; consult the official calendars on release day.

  • Thu, Oct 30 — Q3 GDP (advance) and Weekly Jobless Claims
    • Market focus: core PCE within GDP, real final sales, consumption breadth.
    • Implications: a stronger growth print with benign prices tends to support risk and lean against near‑term easing bets; hot prices or weak demand would pull in the opposite direction.
  • Fri, Oct 31 — Personal Income/Spending and September PCE; Employment Cost Index (Q3); Chicago PMI; University of Michigan Sentiment (final, mid‑morning)
    • Market focus: core PCE momentum (m/m and 3‑month annualized), ECI wage/benefit trends.
    • Implications: confirmation of cooling inflation alongside steady spending would be the “soft‑landing” mix; any firming in wages or core services prices would keep policy risk skewed tighter-for-longer.
  • Mon, Nov 3 — ISM Manufacturing PMI; Construction Spending
    • Market focus: new orders, prices paid, and employment sub‑indices.
    • Implications: stabilization in factory activity would bolster cyclical sectors; weakness would favor defensives and duration.
  • Tue, Nov 4 — JOLTS Job Openings; Factory Orders
    • Market focus: job openings versus quits rate as a gauge of labor-market tightness.
    • Implications: a re‑tightening in openings could re‑ignite wage‑pressure concerns; continued normalization supports disinflation.
  • Wed, Nov 5 — ADP Employment (pre‑market); ISM Services PMI (mid‑morning); US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (8:30–10:00 a.m. ET window)
    • Market focus: in ADP, breadth and wage growth; in ISM services, prices and employment; in refunding, the size and tenor mix of coupons and any commentary on bills versus notes/bonds.
    • Implications: larger long‑duration supply generally pressures the back end of the curve; a heavier bills mix can ease duration fears.
  • Thu, Nov 6 — Weekly Jobless Claims; Productivity and Unit Labor Costs (Q3 prelim)
    • Market focus: trend in claims and whether productivity gains offset unit labor cost pressure.
    • Implications: better productivity helps reconcile solid growth with cooling inflation, a favorable mix for risk assets.

Note: The monthly Employment Situation Report (nonfarm payrolls) is due Friday, Nov 7, just beyond this seven‑day window. Markets will increasingly position around that release as the week progresses.

Positioning and risk considerations

  • Equities: Expect factor rotations around data beats/misses. Quality balance sheets and stable cash flow remain favored when rates volatility is elevated.
  • Rates: Data surprises and refunding details can widen daily ranges, particularly in the 5–10 year sector. Liquidity may be thinner around releases.
  • Credit: Carry remains attractive, but be mindful of idiosyncratic earnings risk. New‑issue concessions may re‑appear after the data wave passes.
  • FX: Dollar path hinges on US real yields versus peers. Watch cross‑asset correlation shifts after each data print.
  • Commodities: Oil sensitive to both macro demand signals and geopolitical headlines; gold tracks real rates and hedging demand.

Bottom line

Into month‑end and the first week of November, markets are trading the trade‑off between resilient growth and the pace of disinflation. The next seven days pack multiple high‑impact releases plus the Treasury’s refunding announcement. Expect episodic volatility around each print, with cross‑asset moves largely dictated by whether the data reinforce a soft‑landing trajectory or revive concerns about sticky inflation and higher‑for‑longer rates.