Market overview

U.S. markets entered the week in a consolidative posture, with investors balancing a lighter macroeconomic calendar against an eventful stretch of upcoming inflation and consumer data. The U.S. cash Treasury market is closed for the Veterans Day holiday, while U.S. equities are operating on a normal schedule. That closure has tempered rate-driven flows and left equity and commodity trading more dependent on micro news, positioning, and expectations for the week’s data.

Rates and the U.S. dollar

With the Treasury market shut, the latest pricing in government bonds will reflect the previous session’s close. Into the holiday, front-end rate expectations were largely steady, and the curve tone remained anchored by the same trade-off that has defined recent weeks: signs of cooling inflation and moderating growth on one side, and resilient consumer demand on the other. The U.S. dollar held within recent ranges against major peers, as investors awaited this week’s inflation inputs to reset relative policy expectations.

Key dynamics in rates and FX to note:

  • Holiday closures historically dampen intraday moves in rate-sensitive assets, often reducing follow-through on headlines until full participation returns.
  • Into mid-month, traders typically watch for inflation data to move terminal-rate and cuts pricing, which in turn feeds the dollar and cross-asset risk appetite.
  • Any outsized moves in oil or geopolitical headlines can still filter through to inflation breakevens once the cash Treasury market reopens.

Equities

U.S. stocks spent the prior session mostly range-bound, a common pattern ahead of top-tier data. Sector performance was nuanced: rate-sensitive pockets such as homebuilders and higher-duration growth shares were mixed alongside steady long-end yield expectations, while defensives offered ballast. Energy shares tracked crude’s intraday swings, and financials were broadly stable in the absence of fresh rate signals.

Market internals to watch as the week unfolds:

  • Leadership breadth: whether gains remain concentrated in a narrow cohort or broaden across cyclicals and small caps.
  • Earnings and guidance from large retailers, which can reset expectations for the holiday shopping season and margins.
  • Volatility term structure: still subdued, it can reprice quickly around inflation surprises.

Commodities

Crude oil oscillated within a contained range as traders weighed global demand signals against supply discipline and geopolitical risk premia. Gold was steady, reflecting a balance between a firm dollar backdrop and continued interest in hedges ahead of the inflation data.

Into the week, commodities remain a key macro swing factor: sustained oil strength would complicate the disinflation narrative, while softer energy would reinforce expectations for policy easing in 2025–2026.

Macro and policy in the last 24 hours

The past day was light on top-tier U.S. economic releases, keeping markets focused on the upcoming inflation reports and consumer data. Policy commentary remains oriented around data dependence, with investors looking for confirmation that inflation progress is continuing without a sharp deterioration in labor markets.

What mattered most to markets over the last 24 hours:

  • Positioning ahead of mid-month inflation readings, which has kept rate expectations and equity multiples in a holding pattern.
  • Holiday-related liquidity effects that typically reduce price discovery in fixed income and credit until full market participation resumes.
  • Ongoing corporate updates that frame demand, inventory, and pricing power into year-end.

Credit and liquidity

Primary issuance in investment-grade credit slowed into the holiday, with secondary trading showing orderly conditions and stable spreads. High yield performance remained tethered to macro tone and oil, with no broad-based stress evident. Liquidity conditions were typical for a U.S. holiday week start: adequate in equities, thinner in rates and credit, and sensitive to headlines.

Seven-day outlook

Macro data

  • Inflation: The next CPI and PPI readings (if scheduled this week) are the decisive catalysts. A cooler CPI would reinforce the disinflation trend, bolstering expectations for 2025 rate cuts, supporting duration, and favoring longer-duration equities. A hotter print would likely firm front-end yields, lift the dollar, and pressure growth and interest-rate-sensitive equities.
  • Labor and demand: Weekly jobless claims will provide a timely read on labor-market cooling. Retail sales, if on the calendar, will shape views on Q4 consumption, with control-group detail critical for GDP tracking.
  • Housing: Mid-month housing indicators (builder sentiment, starts/permits) can influence the rates-growth narrative and homebuilder equities.

Federal Reserve and policy

  • Fedspeak: Any remarks will be parsed for tolerance of near-term inflation noise versus confidence in trend disinflation. Watch for comments on balance sheet runoff, term premiums, and sensitivity to financial conditions.
  • Policy path: Markets remain keyed to the sequence and pace of eventual rate cuts; incoming data will determine whether expectations lean earlier or later.

Rates supply and technicals

  • Treasury auctions: Mid-month refunding auctions, when scheduled, can add volatility to the long end, especially if investor demand metrics (bid-to-cover, tails, indirect participation) deviate from recent norms.
  • Curve dynamics: A cooler inflation sequence would typically encourage further bull steepening; a surprise re-acceleration risks bear flattening as the front-end reprices.

Corporate earnings

  • Retailers: Large U.S. retailers often report in mid-November. Commentary on traffic, promotions, shrink, and inventory can recalibrate margin expectations and the health of the lower- and middle-income consumer.
  • Software and semis: Guidance updates around enterprise demand and AI-related capex remain pivotal for growth leadership sentiment.

Cross-asset risks

  • Energy and geopolitics: Sustained oil upside would pose upside risk to headline inflation and inflation expectations; a pullback would aid the disinflation narrative.
  • Credit conditions: Watch high yield for early stress signals if growth concerns re-intensify; conversely, firm spreads would support risk tolerance.
  • Global growth pulse: Surprises from China or Europe can shift the dollar and U.S. rate expectations, rippling through commodities and risk assets.

Scenario map for the week

  • Soft inflation, steady demand: Equities broaden beyond mega-cap growth; yields drift lower led by the front end; dollar softens; credit stays firm.
  • Hot inflation, resilient demand: Front-end yields back up; dollar firms; multiples compress at the margin; defensives and cash-flow quality outperform.
  • Soft demand, mixed inflation: Growth concerns rise; cyclicals and small caps lag; duration outperforms; credit differentiates more sharply by quality.

Bottom line

The last 24 hours were defined more by positioning than by data, as the Veterans Day Treasury closure muted rate-driven flows and kept focus on the imminent inflation and consumer releases. With liquidity normalizing as the week progresses, the next set of macro prints will likely reset rate-path expectations and determine whether equities can extend recent gains or slip back into a choppier, data-by-data tape.