Note: This update emphasizes drivers, context, and scenario analysis appropriate for late November trading conditions. Intraday price prints and specific outcomes from the last 24 hours are not included here.

Market drivers over the last 24 hours

Into the final stretch before Thanksgiving, US macro and markets are moving through a seasonal handoff: liquidity typically thins, key monthly data cluster earlier in the week ahead, and investors rebalance risk in light of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting trajectory. Over the past day, attention has centered on the following:

  • Growth pulse via high-frequency surveys: Late-month business surveys and activity trackers tend to set the tone, with services activity watched for signals on labor demand and pricing. Even modest surprises can move rate expectations when liquidity is light.
  • Fed communication and path expectations: With the December FOMC on approach, any remarks from policymakers carry outsized weight. Markets are parsing for confirmation that policy is sufficiently restrictive, and for hints about the balance between “higher for longer” versus a data-dependent glidepath in 2026.
  • Treasury market supply and liquidity: Year-end balance-sheet constraints and the November refunding cycle keep focus on the 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes. Dealer capacity, auction takedown patterns, and term premium dynamics are shaping the curve into month-end.
  • Corporate news and the holiday retail season: Messaging from retailers and traffic trackers into Black Friday/Cyber Monday influences earnings revision risk. Investors are differentiating between promotional intensity (margin pressure) and volume resilience (top-line support).
  • Energy, the dollar, and imported disinflation: Crude’s recent range and a broadly stable dollar help frame near-term headline inflation. A softer energy complex supports real income and discretionary spending; renewed volatility would complicate the disinflation narrative.

Cross-asset read-through (qualitative)

Rates

The front end remains anchored by policy expectations, while intermediate maturities are sensitive to growth and inflation surprises. Auction outcomes, dealer positioning, and thin conditions can amplify moves around the belly of the curve. Breakevens continue to reflect a cooling but not collapsed inflation path.

Equities

Positioning is balancing “soft-landing” hopes against earnings durability. Cyclicals and small caps are most levered to growth momentum; defensives and cash-flow compounders remain shelters if macro data wobbles. Low holiday liquidity often dampens realized volatility, but gap risk rises around data drops.

Credit

Spreads stay tethered to the growth narrative and primary calendar cadence. Investment grade benefits from rate stabilization; high yield is more sensitive to margin risk in consumer-facing sectors and any sign of labor market softening.

US dollar

The dollar’s near-term path is tied to relative growth and rate differentials. A benign inflation glidepath and steady global PMIs can cap broader dollar strength; any re-acceleration in US data would support it.

Commodities

Crude markets are balancing demand softness fears against supply discipline and geopolitics. Holiday travel patterns add a transient demand impulse; inventory data mid-week often sets near-term tone.

Seven-day US macro and market outlook

Thanksgiving week typically front-loads key data to mid-week and brings liquidity constraints later in the week. The schedule below reflects common timing and market practice; consult official calendars for final confirmation.

Monday (Nov 24)

  • Focus: Set-up for a compressed data week; liquidity rebuilding after the weekend.
  • Rates: Treasury may kick off the week with a 2-year auction; bid quality and indirect participation will inform front-end demand amid policy-rate anchoring.
  • Equities/Credit: Investors position for mid-week macro risk; watch corporate pre-announcements and holiday inventory commentary.

Tuesday (Nov 25)

  • Focus: Supply continues; second-tier data can influence the curve in thin conditions.
  • Rates: A 5-year auction typically follows; term premium and curve shape in the 5–10y zone remain sensitive to growth prints.
  • Equities/Credit: Sector rotation may reflect expectations for consumer strength heading into Black Friday.

Wednesday (Nov 26)

  • Focus: Data cluster day before the holiday.
  • Economy: Durable goods orders, personal income/spending, and the PCE deflator are often released before Thanksgiving; jobless claims and various housing and sentiment updates are commonly pulled forward to Wednesday.
  • Policy: FOMC minutes are frequently scheduled mid-week; markets parse for nuance on growth/inflation assessment and balance sheet discussion.
  • Rates: A 7-year auction typically completes the coupon supply; outcomes can sway the belly and long end into month-end.
  • Energy: EIA petroleum inventories usually print a day early, affecting crude and gasoline into the travel weekend.

Thursday (Nov 27)

  • Thanksgiving Day: US cash equity and Treasury markets closed; futures may trade on limited schedules. Liquidity is minimal; headline risk can have outsized effects on reopen.

Friday (Nov 28)

  • Black Friday: US equities typically observe an early close; volumes are thin.
  • Consumer watch: Third-party trackers, card data, and anecdotal reports begin to shape views on the holiday sales season. Official November retail sales arrive in mid-December, but early signals influence discretionary and logistics names.
  • Rates/FX: Micro-liquidity can exaggerate responses to any headlines; expect wider bid-ask and potential gap risk into the weekend.

Weekend into Monday (Dec 1)

  • Cyber Monday performance and weekend traffic reports inform near-term equity leadership within consumer sectors.
  • Month-end and start-of-month flows: Rebalancing, pension adjustments, and early-month PMIs often reset positioning and volatility.

Scenario guide for the week ahead

If core PCE cools faster than expected

  • Rates: Bull steepening bias as front-end cut pricing edges forward; real yields ease.
  • Equities: Duration-sensitive growth and quality factors outperform; defensives hold if growth concerns rise.
  • Dollar/Commodities: Dollar softens; precious metals find support; crude impact mixed (demand concern vs. carry/tactical).

If core PCE runs firm or re-accelerates

  • Rates: Bear flattening risk led by the front end; term premium may rebuild modestly in the belly.
  • Equities: Valuation compression at higher-duration ends; cyclicals supported only if growth data confirm strength.
  • Dollar/Commodities: Dollar support; pressure on gold; crude supported if growth outlook also firms.

Labor and spending mixed (claims tick up; spending steady)

  • Rates: Range-bound; curve micro-steepening as long-run inflation expectations remain anchored.
  • Equities/Credit: Rotation within consumer complex—staples and value retail favored over highly promotional discretionary.

Microstructure and positioning to consider

  • Liquidity: Holiday schedules lower depth-of-book; slippage and gap risk increase around data drops and auction results.
  • Options: Volatility often compresses into holidays, but skew can stay bid around macro catalysts; consider hedging timing.
  • Rebalancing: Month-end flows can create countertrend moves, especially if earlier-November performance was one-sided.
  • Auctions: Watch tails/cover ratios and indirect/direct take-up; they often foreshadow near-term curve behavior.

What to watch

  • Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator and spending/income details: goods vs. services mix and supercore trends.
  • Durable goods orders (core capital goods proxy): capex momentum into year-end.
  • Labor market signals: initial claims, continuing claims, and wage components in upcoming releases.
  • Treasury auctions (2s/5s/7s): demand composition and curve implications.
  • FOMC minutes: emphasis on growth risks vs. inflation persistence and any balance sheet commentary.
  • Holiday retail indicators: promotions, traffic, conversion, and inventory signals from retailers and third-party trackers.
  • Energy inventories and price action: impact on headline inflation and consumer real income.

Bottom line

The market’s near-term narrative hinges on whether disinflation can proceed alongside stable demand as liquidity thins into the holiday. A front-loaded data slate and Treasury supply will likely define the week’s tone; retail season anecdotes add sector-specific volatility. Expect cleaner trend signals to emerge by mid-week, with position management and risk controls taking precedence as the US heads into the Thanksgiving break and an early Friday close.