What changed in the last 24 hours

With U.S. markets closed over the weekend, the past 24 hours produced little in the way of official macroeconomic releases or tradable price discovery. Attention is pivoting to a holiday-shortened week that typically pulls forward several high‑impact reports ahead of Thanksgiving. Liquidity is expected to be thin, which can amplify moves around data and headlines when futures reopen Sunday evening and in Monday’s cash session.

The market’s near-term debate remains centered on three themes: the inflation glide path into year‑end, how resilient real activity proves after a solid fall season, and whether rate‑cut expectations are calibrated correctly for early 2026. Into this week, the inflation discussion will be shaped by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price data, while growth will be parsed through the second estimate of third‑quarter GDP and durable goods orders. Retail and travel demand around the Black Friday weekend will provide fresh, high‑frequency color on the consumer.

The macro catalysts to watch

  • PCE inflation and personal income/spending: The core PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge. A softer monthly print would reinforce disinflation momentum; a firmer reading would reopen debate about the timing and magnitude of future policy easing. The accompanying income and outlays data will help assess real consumption into the holiday season.
  • Q3 GDP (second estimate): Revisions to growth, consumption, and core inflation components (e.g., PCE prices ex‑food and energy) can nudge rate expectations and risk appetite. Watch inventory and net export revisions for clues to Q4 momentum.
  • Durable goods orders: Headline is often volatile due to aircraft; the ex‑transport and core capital goods (nondefense ex‑air) readings are more informative for capex. A steady core would support soft‑landing narratives; weakness would revive concerns about business spending.
  • Weekly jobless claims: Typically reported on Wednesday during Thanksgiving week. Claims still offer the timeliest read on labor-market softening or resilience.
  • Housing prints: New home sales and price measures help gauge interest-rate sensitivity and inventory dynamics. Stabilization would support cyclical breadth; renewed softness would be a drag on construction and goods demand.
  • Consumer sentiment and holiday sales trackers: University and private-sector measures, plus real-time card‑spend data, will frame the Black Friday/Cyber Monday demand picture and discounting intensity.
  • FOMC minutes (if scheduled this week): The minutes, when released around this time of year, often clarify the distribution of risk inside the Committee—especially how much weight officials place on near-term disinflation versus growth cooling.

Note: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, several reports are typically consolidated to Wednesday. Check official releases for precise timing as agencies sometimes adjust calendars in holiday weeks.

How the data could steer markets

Rates and the dollar

  • Inflation cooler than expected: 2‑year Treasury yields tend to fall more than 10‑year yields; curve steepens modestly. The dollar usually softens, especially versus low‑beta FX. Rate‑cut expectations for 2026 move forward.
  • Inflation hotter than expected: Front‑end yields rise, curves flatten/invert, and the dollar firms. Markets push out or reduce expected policy easing.
  • Growth revisions higher with tame prices: Bullish “goldilocks” impulse for the long end; term premium can fall as soft‑landing odds rise.
  • Growth downside with sticky prices: Worst-case stagflation mix—long-end yields volatile, breakevens rise, and the dollar strength becomes more defensive.

Equities

  • Soft inflation + steady demand: Quality growth, large-cap tech, and interest‑sensitive sectors (homebuilders, select REITs) typically outperform; cyclicals can participate if durable goods are firm.
  • Hot inflation or weak demand: Higher‑for‑longer narratives pressure duration‑sensitive equities; defensives and cash‑flow compounds tend to hold up better than deep cyclicals.
  • Retail focus: Positive Black Friday traffic and low markdowns favor broadline retailers and payments; heavy discounting to move inventory supports near‑term volumes but can weigh on margins.

Credit

  • Holiday-week issuance is usually light; secondary liquidity thins. Stable macro prints support carry and spread grind; surprises can gap spreads in thinner markets.

Commodities

  • Energy: OPEC+ headlines around late November can swing crude; softer oil would support disinflation and consumer real incomes, while a rebound lifts headline inflation expectations.
  • Gold: Tends to benefit if real yields fall on disinflation or if safe‑haven demand rises on growth fears.

Positioning and liquidity considerations

  • Holiday-thinned markets: Expect wider bid‑ask spreads and exaggerated moves around data drops.
  • Month-end effects: Portfolio rebalancing flows late in the week can add non‑fundamental volatility, especially given strong relative moves earlier in the month.
  • Volatility: Options pricing can look optically low into holidays; watch for post‑data repricing and gamma effects around key levels.

7‑day outlook

  • Sunday: Futures reopen; tone set by weekend headlines and energy markets. Liquidity remains thin.
  • Monday: Light data slate typical for Thanksgiving week. Focus on retailer updates, travel demand, and any early holiday‑spend reads. Watch Dallas/Richmond manufacturing surveys if scheduled.
  • Tuesday: Conference Board consumer confidence and home‑price gauges are often released on Tuesdays; any FOMC minutes scheduled this week would typically hit in the afternoon. Market sensitivity high given reduced liquidity.
  • Wednesday: Pre‑holiday “data dump” is common—look for PCE inflation and personal income/outlays, Q3 GDP (second estimate), durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims, and new home sales. Cross‑asset moves can be outsized.
  • Thursday (Thanksgiving): U.S. markets closed. No major releases.
  • Friday: Abbreviated U.S. trading session. Early reads on Black Friday traffic and discounting. Month‑end rebalancing chatter enters the frame; liquidity is thin.
  • Weekend: Continued parse of holiday sales, inventory levels, and price‑cut intensity; setup for Cyber Monday and early December data.

Given the concentration of catalysts on Wednesday, risk management around that session is critical. Consider how portfolios react to both a benign disinflation/growth mix and a hotter‑inflation or softer‑growth surprise.

Key risks and wildcards

  • OPEC+/energy volatility: Late‑November meetings or guidance often move crude; energy is the swing factor for headline inflation and consumer sentiment.
  • Policy communications: Any unexpected central‑bank remarks or minutes takeaways can reset the policy path even in a thin week.
  • Supply chains: Seasonal shipping congestion or labor disruptions could affect goods availability, margins, and prices.
  • Geopolitics: Escalations that impact energy or risk appetite would ripple through rates, FX, and equities.

Bottom line

The story of the coming week will hinge on whether pre‑holiday macro data confirm a gentle disinflation alongside resilient demand. That outcome would support lower front‑end yields, a modestly steeper curve, and risk appetite that favors quality growth and rate‑sensitive segments. A hotter inflation surprise or meaningful growth wobble would reverse that script in an illiquid tape. Stay nimble around Wednesday’s releases and mindful of holiday‑week liquidity and month‑end flows.