Topline

• Quiet 24 hours with US cash markets closed over the weekend; investors are digesting central bank rhetoric from Jackson Hole while awaiting a dense slate of end‑of‑month US data.
• Key events to watch over the next seven days: July PCE inflation and personal spending, Q2 GDP (second estimate), July durable goods orders, August Conference Board Consumer Confidence, weekly jobless claims, and month‑end Treasury note auctions.
• Main risks into month‑end: the Fed’s reaction function to inflation progress, the pace of labor‑market cooling, oil price volatility during peak hurricane season, and thin liquidity that can amplify moves.

What happened in the last 24 hours

With US equity and Treasury cash markets closed over the weekend, price action was muted. There were no scheduled US macroeconomic releases on Sunday. Attention remained on the policy signals from the Federal Reserve and other central banks following the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, which concluded Saturday. Investors are parsing how policymakers balance cooling inflation against still‑resilient activity, and what that implies for the timing and pace of rate adjustments into the autumn FOMC meetings.

US stock index and Treasury futures are set to reopen Sunday at 6:00 p.m. ET, which will provide the first read on risk sentiment ahead of Monday’s cash session. Commodity markets and crypto trade continuously over the weekend; any notable geopolitical or weather developments—particularly those affecting energy supply during hurricane season—could influence the Monday open.

Market setup heading into the week

• Policy watch: Markets will focus on whether incoming inflation and growth data sustain a glidepath toward the Fed’s target, and how that shapes expectations for potential rate cuts later this year. Post‑Jackson Hole commentary from Fed officials (if any) could refine guidance.
• Growth vs. inflation mix: End‑of‑month data will test the “soft‑landing” narrative. Upside inflation surprises would tend to push yields and the dollar higher and pressure long‑duration assets; downside surprises would likely support risk assets and duration.
• Liquidity/flows: Late‑August trading typically features thinner liquidity. Month‑end rebalancing can create flow‑driven moves that temporarily diverge from fundamentals.
• Earnings/supply: The corporate earnings season is in its later innings; guidance updates still matter for capex and margins. In rates, mid‑week Treasury auctions can influence curve dynamics and term premia.

Seven‑day outlook (August 25–31, 2025)

Dates below reflect typical release patterns in the final week of the month; always verify with official calendars (BEA, BLS, Conference Board, Federal Reserve, Treasury, DOE/EIA).

Monday, Aug 25

• Housing: New Home Sales (July) — a read on primary‑market housing demand and rate sensitivity.
• Regional activity: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (August) — anecdotal signals on orders, employment, and prices in the energy‑sensitive region.
• Treasury bills: Routine bill auctions; setup day ahead of coupon supply later in the week.

Tuesday, Aug 26

• Durable Goods Orders (July) — headline is aircraft‑driven; core capital goods ex‑aircraft is the cleaner proxy for business equipment investment.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (August) — labor‑differential and expectations components are key for spending momentum.
• Treasury: 2‑year note auction — can influence front‑end yields and policy‑path pricing.
• Regional activity: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August), if scheduled.

Wednesday, Aug 27

• Housing: Pending Home Sales (July) — a leading indicator for existing sales with a one‑to‑two‑month lead.
• Energy: EIA weekly petroleum status — inventories, refinery runs, and product demand into hurricane season.
• Treasury: 5‑year note auction — watches the belly of the curve for term‑premium moves.

Thursday, Aug 28

• GDP (Q2, second estimate) — revisions to consumption, capex, and inventories; core PCE deflator within the report provides another inflation lens.
• Weekly jobless claims — ongoing read on labor‑market cooling and layoff dynamics.
• Regional activity: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing (August), if scheduled.
• Treasury: 7‑year note auction; Fed balance sheet (H.4.1) after the close.

Friday, Aug 29

• Personal Income & Outlays (July) — includes PCE Price Index and Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, plus real spending and saving rates.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August, final) — inflation expectations (1‑year and 5‑10‑year) are the focus.
• Chicago PMI (August) — a regional factory pulse with insights on orders and employment.
• Month‑end flows — possible rebalancing effects into the close.

Weekend, Aug 30–31

• Markets closed; monitor for any policy remarks or geopolitical developments that could set the tone for the post‑Labor‑Day period.

Key scenarios and market implications

• Core PCE hotter than trend: A firmer monthly print would likely push front‑end yields and the US dollar higher, flatten curves, and weigh on long‑duration equities and rate‑sensitive sectors (housing, utilities). Credit spreads could widen modestly on tighter financial‑conditions expectations.
• Core PCE cooler than trend: A softer print would support duration and risk assets, steepen curves modestly if growth remains resilient, and ease financial conditions at the margin.
• GDP revision dynamics: Upward revisions to real consumption/capex with stable disinflation would bolster soft‑landing expectations; a growth downgrade alongside sticky inflation would resurrect stagflation worries.
• Durables/core capital goods: Strength would signal capex resilience, supportive for industrials and productivity narratives; weakness would flag caution on business investment.
• Confidence and claims: Deterioration in consumer expectations or a sustained rise in claims would underscore a slower labor market, tempering the growth outlook but also easing inflation pressure.
• Treasury supply: Heavier demand at mid‑week auctions would anchor the belly/long end; tepid takedown could cheapen term premia and pressure risk assets via higher discount rates.

What to watch on screens

• US 2s/10s curve shape and real yields around data prints.
• Dollar index versus major peers on inflation surprises.
• Breakeven inflation and TIPS real rates into and after PCE.
• High‑beta equities vs. defensives for a read on growth/rate sensitivity.
• Crude oil and refined products during peak storm activity; natural gas for Gulf developments.
• Credit spreads (IG/HY) for any sign of tightening financial conditions spilling into funding.