Note on data availability

This report does not include a precise, timestamped recap of the last 24 hours of US macroeconomic releases and market price moves because real-time data access is unavailable in this environment. Instead, it offers a contextual read on the dominant forces that typically shape late-August US trading and a detailed seven-day outlook to help readers navigate what’s next.

Market context in the most recent session

Late in the month, US markets are often driven by three overlapping dynamics:

  • Pre-month-end positioning and rebalancing: Asset managers frequently adjust exposures as month-end approaches, which can tilt flows between equities, Treasuries, and the US dollar. If equities have outperformed bonds during the month, some mechanical rebalancing can create incremental bond-buying and equity-selling pressure, and vice versa.
  • Data clustering ahead of a holiday and the turn of the month: The last week of August typically brings durable goods orders, the second estimate of quarterly GDP, weekly jobless claims, and the PCE inflation report, alongside regional activity gauges. Markets often trade cautiously ahead of these releases, with volatility picking up around the prints.
  • Treasury supply and curve dynamics: Regular mid-week auctions in the 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year sectors can influence front- and belly-of-the-curve yields and ripple across risk assets through valuation and discount-rate channels.

Together, these factors commonly produce range-bound trading into key releases, followed by directional moves if incoming data materially alter the market’s inflation and growth assumptions.

Seven-day US macro and market outlook

The coming week features a dense macro calendar and notable seasonal factors. While exact release times and consensus figures should be checked on the day, the following items are typically scheduled in the final week of August and the start of September:

Key economic releases and events

  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence (August): Usually released early in the week. Markets watch the labor differential (jobs plentiful vs. hard to get) and inflation expectations components for signals on household resilience and potential demand-side pressure on prices.
  • Durable Goods Orders (July): Often mid-week. The core nondefense ex-aircraft category is a proxy for business equipment spending and capex momentum. Persistent softness can foreshadow slower GDP prints; resilience supports a firmer growth track.
  • GDP Second Estimate (Q2): Typically later in the week. Revisions to consumption and inventories can meaningfully shift growth composition even if the headline moves only modestly. A stronger consumption revision can reawaken inflation concerns; softer consumption with firmer inventories may point to slower forward momentum.
  • Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims: Thursday release. Although noisy, an upward drift in continuing claims would suggest a cooler labor market and less wage pressure; a reversal lower would reinforce labor tightness.
  • Personal Income, Personal Spending, and PCE Price Index (July): Usually late in the week. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Markets are highly sensitive to monthly core momentum (three- and six-month annualized rates) and revisions.
  • Regional and sentiment surveys: Final Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, Chicago PMI, and other activity gauges may color the growth narrative into month-end.
  • US Labor Day (Monday, September 1): US markets are typically closed, with liquidity thinning into the long weekend. Pre-holiday positioning can amplify moves around end-of-week data.
  • ISM Manufacturing (August) and Construction Spending: Commonly released on the first business day of the month (Tuesday). The new orders, prices paid, and employment subcomponents are key for gauging cyclical momentum and inflation pressure on the goods side.
  • Treasury auctions (2y/5y/7y): Regularly scheduled late in the month. Tails or strong bid metrics can sway front-end rates and help set the tone for broader risk appetite.

What the data could mean for markets

  • Inflation (PCE) scenarios:
    • Cooler-than-expected core PCE: Likely bull-flattening in Treasuries (front-end yields down more than long-end), a softer US dollar, and support for duration-sensitive equities (growth/tech). Credit spreads could tighten modestly on a soft-landing narrative.
    • Hotter-than-expected core PCE: Bear-flattening or bear-steepening depending on growth tone; stronger dollar; pressure on long-duration equities. Rate-sensitive sectors (housing, utilities) may underperform; financials could gain if the curve steepens.
  • Growth (durables, GDP revision, ISM):
    • Resilient growth + benign inflation: “Goldilocks” setup supports equities and high beta credit; yields may drift higher on term premium without undermining multiples.
    • Resilient growth + sticky inflation: Markets may price a higher-for-longer policy path; equities could bifurcate with cyclicals holding up better than long-duration names; dollar firmness likely.
    • Softer growth + cooling inflation: Front-end yields fall on easier-policy expectations; defensives, quality and larger caps may outperform; watch for renewed debate on earnings durability.
    • Softer growth + sticky inflation (stagflation risk): Challenging mix for risk assets; curve steepening from long-end weakness is possible; dollar may firm as a safe haven.
  • Labor market (claims, confidence labor differential): A gradual cooling remains consistent with disinflation. Any abrupt weakening would raise recession odds and support a faster policy-easing path; renewed tightness would complicate the inflation outlook.

Cross-asset considerations

  • Equities: Earnings revisions breadth and guidance updates matter more as macro uncertainty rises. Into month-end, mechanical rebalancing can temporarily mask fundamental trends. Expect factor rotations around rates moves: falling yields often favor growth/quality; rising real yields pressure long-duration equities.
  • Rates: Watch auction outcomes, term premium behavior, and inflation breakevens around PCE. Curve shape is informative: bull flatteners typically signal market confidence in disinflation; bear steepeners may reflect fiscal/term-premium pressures or re-acceleration risk.
  • US dollar: Most sensitive to relative rate expectations and risk sentiment. A cooler PCE and softer ISM would usually weigh on the dollar; hotter prints and resilient ISM would support it.
  • Credit: High yield spreads are tied to growth expectations and earnings resilience. A benign macro mix and contained rates volatility support carry; a growth wobble or rates volatility spike can widen spreads.
  • Commodities: Late-summer energy volatility is a wildcard (hurricane season, refinery outages). A sustained oil upswing complicates the disinflation path via gasoline and transport costs.

Risks and wildcards to monitor

  • Data revisions: PCE and GDP revisions can alter prior narratives and reprice policy expectations abruptly.
  • Policy communication: Any unscheduled Fed commentary or minutes interpretation drift can shift the rates path; watch for changes in balance-sheet runoff or reaction-function nuances.
  • Liquidity conditions: Pre-holiday thinning can exaggerate price moves, particularly around large options expiries or Treasury auctions.
  • Global spillovers: Surprises from major foreign PMIs, inflation prints, or policy moves can translate quickly via the dollar and US long-end yields.

Actionable watchlist for the week

  • Headline and core PCE month-over-month and the three-/six-month annualized pace.
  • Durables core nondefense ex-aircraft as a capex signal; watch revisions.
  • GDP composition: consumption vs. inventories and net exports.
  • ISM Manufacturing new orders, prices paid, and employment subindexes.
  • Labor signals: claims trend and consumer confidence labor differential.
  • Treasury auction metrics: bid-to-cover, indirect participation, and tails.

Bottom line

The late-August calendar concentrates pivotal inflation and growth signals just as liquidity thins into the Labor Day weekend and month-end flows pass through markets. Expect direction to hinge on the PCE inflation print and ISM Manufacturing next week, with Treasury auctions and GDP revisions providing additional catalysts. Positioning and factor leadership in equities are likely to rotate with moves in real yields, while the dollar will track relative policy expectations and risk sentiment.