CHICAGO — Over the next week, U.S. ag futures will key off three things: field intel from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour (Aug 18–21), Monday’s Crop Progress, and Thursday’s USDA Weekly Export Sales. Weather remains a background driver via the CPC 6–10 and 8–14 day outlooks. 

Grains & oilseeds — our 1-week read

  • Corn (CBOT): Sideways to slightly softer as the market digests large U.S. supply ideas; any bullish surprise would likely have to come from crop-tour yield checks or a strong export-sales print. Watch Monday’s conditions/ denting progress and Wednesday’s ethanol update for demand tone. Key dates: Aug 18 (Progress), Aug 20 (EIA ethanol), Aug 21 (Export Sales). 

  • Soybeans (CBOT): Mildly bid / two-way trade — beans remain sensitive to pod-count headlines from the Crop Tour and new-crop sales pace. If CPC maps lean warm/drier for key areas, dips could find support; cooler/wetter outlooks would cap rallies. Key dates: Aug 18, 21; Tour nightly recaps Aug 18–21.

  • Wheat (CBOT): Rallies likely fade without help from exports; global supply remains heavy. A strong U.S. sales number Thursday would be the cleanest upside catalyst. Key date: Aug 21.

Softs & livestock — quick take

  • Sugar #11 / Cocoa (ICE): Expect range-bound to choppy; sugar tracks global supply headlines and FX, cocoa stays headline-driven/volatile. No major U.S. reports on deck, so watch outside-market flows and origin news.

  • Cattle & Hogs (CME): Choppy; cattle lean on tightness but vulnerable to demand wobble, hogs still tracking product values and weights. Monday’s ERS outlooks (LDP & Sugar/Sweeteners) add color rather than immediate catalysts.

What to watch (calendar)

  • Mon, Aug 18: Crop Progress (4:00 p.m. ET). Field conditions/ maturity guide early-week positioning.

  • Mon–Thu, Aug 18–21: Pro Farmer Crop Tour nightly readouts from seven Midwest hubs; intraday volatility likely on social updates.

  • Wed, Aug 20: EIA ethanol production/stocks (corn grind signal).

  • Thu, Aug 21: USDA Weekly Export Sales (new-crop momentum check for corn/soy/wheat).

  • Daily: CPC 6–10 / 8–14 day outlooks updated (weather trade bias).

Bottom line: Near-term direction hinges on Crop Tour headlines + Thursday’s sales sheet. Our bias is corn: sideways/soft; soybeans: two-way with a slight bid on any hot/dry hints; wheat: fade strength unless exports pop. Treat moves as headline- and weather-sensitive over this 7-day window. (This is for information only, not investment advice.)