📈 Market Summary: Last 24 Hours
Wheat futures rose 1.3% on August 25, 2025, driven by strong export inspections and competitive U.S. pricing [1]. Spot prices hovered around $5.07 per bushel for Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter wheat [2]. Export inspections surged to 946,472 tons, with Indonesia leading demand [1].
🌾 USDA Forecast & 7-Day Outlook
The USDA’s August 2025 Wheat Outlook projects total U.S. wheat production at 1.927 billion bushels, down 2 million from July due to lower Hard Red Spring and White wheat yields [3]. However, winter wheat yields rose to 54.8 bushels/acre, offsetting acreage reductions.
- Exports: Forecast up 25 million bushels to 875 million
- Ending stocks: Lowered to 869 million bushels
- Farm price: Reduced to $5.30 per bushel
- Durum wheat: Production raised to 87 million bushels, a 9-year high
Global wheat production is forecast at a record 806.9 MMT, with increased output in the EU offsetting declines in China and South America [3].
📊 Market Implications
Despite slightly lower domestic production, strong export momentum and competitive pricing are supporting U.S. wheat. However, reduced food use and lower futures prices may cap gains. Traders are watching Russian shipping delays and global weather risks for further market direction [1].
🔮 7-Day Outlook
- Price Trend: Mildly bullish due to export strength
- Weather Impact: Watch for frost risks in northern U.S. and delayed monsoons in Brazil
- Market Watch: Russian export pace and global demand shifts
Sources:
- [1](https://www.graincentral.com/markets/daily-market-wire-26-august-2025/) Grain Central
- [2](https://uswheat.org/market-information/price-report/) U.S. Wheat Associates
- [3](https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/outlooks/113135/WHS-25h.pdf?v=74556) USDA ERS
