1) What happened in the last 24 hours
- Futures tone: Trade stayed mixed‑to‑steady as markets digested strong new‑crop export sales and record supply expectations. December corn hovered near $4.10/bu Friday after settling at $4.04 on Wednesday, keeping prices in a narrow band (Farm Futures AM; WSJ Market Data).
- Cash market: The front‑month national average cash corn index firmed to roughly the $3.70/bu area late this week, reflecting modest basis support despite large U.S. supply projections (Farm Futures).
- Exports & demand: USDA reported robust weekly new‑crop corn sales of ~2.86 MMT (week ended Aug. 14), while inspections earlier in the week tallied 1.05 MMT (Farm Futures; Yahoo Finance/Barchart).
- Crop progress: The crop is 97% silking, 72% dough, 27% dented, with conditions at 71% good/excellent, slightly softer w/w (Yahoo Finance/Barchart).
- Global competition: Brazil’s safrinha harvest is near 94%, and more aggressive export offers continued to cap U.S. rallies (Northern Ag Network).
2) Key market drivers now
Supply
The USDA projects a record 16.7B bu 2025/26 corn crop on higher harvested area and a 188.8 bu/acre yield, pressuring the season‑average farm price toward $3.90 (USDA ERS Outlook – Aug 15, 2025).
Demand
Feed, ethanol, and exports are solid; however, Brazilian availability is increasing as safrinha wraps up, intensifying price competition into U.S. Gulf/PNW (Northern Ag Network).
Weather
Forecasts skew hot/dry across parts of the Midwest for the coming week, elevating late grain‑fill risk; NOAA’s 8–14‑day favors drier‑than‑normal in the eastern Corn Belt (Commodity‑Board (weather summary); Farm Futures PM).
3) Recent settlements – CBOT Corn (Dec ’25)
| Date | Settlement (¢/bu) |
|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2025 | 397.25 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 405.25 |
| Aug 18, 2025 | 406.50 |
| Aug 19, 2025 | 403.25 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | 404.00 |
Source: WSJ Market Data (CBOT settlements). Additional historical closes: Yahoo Finance.
4) 7‑Session Price Trend (Chart)
5) Outlook (Next 7 Days)
- Weather & yields: If the hot/dry bias verifies, late‑fill stress could curb top‑end yields in pockets, offering near‑term futures support; improved precipitation would re‑assert the bearish record‑crop narrative (Commodity‑Board weather; USDA ERS).
- Price action: With Dec ’25 holding the $4.00 area and clearing its 20‑day SMA on Thursday, dips may attract short‑covering; failure back below ~$4.00 would invite renewed hedge pressure (Farm Futures AM).
- Flows & positioning: Managed money remains net short (≈160k contracts), leaving scope for squeezes on supportive weather/export headlines (Northern Ag Network).
- Exports & calendar: Watch Thursday’s weekly export sales and daily “flash” announcements; strong new‑crop buying has been a bright spot and could offset some supply pressure if sustained (CME export context; Farm Futures).
6) Strategy Notes
- Producers: Consider scaling sales on weather‑led rallies above ~$4.10–$4.20 Dec ’25 while retaining upside via call spreads; widen basis checks as elevators prepare for large inbound volumes (USDA ERS).
- End‑users: Use weather‑driven softness to extend coverage; basis opportunities are emerging as Brazil competes aggressively and domestic stocks build into harvest (Northern Ag Network).
Notes & Sources: USDA ERS Corn & Feed Grains Outlook (Aug 15, 2025); WSJ Market Data (CBOT Dec ’25); Yahoo Finance historical; Farm Futures AM & PM; Northern Ag Network; Yahoo Finance/Barchart recap; CME Group – Corn overview & export context.
