Corn futures rebounded slightly to around $4.05/bu after hitting contract lows earlier this week, pressured by USDA’s record crop forecast of 16.7B bushels and 188.8 bpa yield. Crop conditions remain strong at 71% good-to-excellent, while early harvest in southern states adds supply pressure. Exports are up 28% year-over-year, though Brazil’s aggressive sales weigh on sentiment.

7-Day Outlook

• Price Direction: Analysts expect continued downward pressure on corn futures as harvest accelerates. December contracts could retest support near $3.75–$3.85.
• Weather Impact: NOAA forecasts scattered rains in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through early next week, followed by drier-than-normal conditions in parts of the Corn Belt.
• Key Watchpoints:
  • Final results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour.
  • Export pace amid global competition.
  • Fund positioning and potential short-covering rallies.

Bottom Line: With record production looming and harvest accelerating, the corn market faces a fundamentally bearish tone in the near term. Any price strength will likely hinge on export demand or unexpected weather disruptions.