Market Recap – Last 24 Hours
ICE cotton futures were steady to slightly higher on Wednesday, with December contracts closing at 67.6 cents per pound and March at 69.24 cents. The modest uptick followed USDA’s August supply and demand report, which cut U.S. planted acreage and projected 2025/26 production at 13.2 million bales, the second-lowest in a decade. Despite the smaller crop, global supply remains ample due to strong Brazilian output and higher Chinese production forecasts. U.S. export sales for 2024/25 have been robust, but 2025/26 bookings lag year-on-year. Crop conditions are relatively favorable, with 53% rated good-to-excellent, up from 46% last year.7-Day Outlook
- Price Direction: Futures are expected to trade in a tight range near 66–69 cents/lb, with slight upside potential if export demand improves or speculative short-covering occurs.
- Weather Impact: Favorable moisture in Texas and scattered rains across the Cotton Belt should support crop development, though harvest delays in the Delta remain possible.
- Key Watchpoints:
- Potential tariff policy changes affecting Southeast Asian textile markets.
- Global competition, particularly from Brazil, remains a headwind.
- Speculative positioning and macroeconomic signals (dollar strength, crude oil) could trigger short-term volatility.
Bottom Line: While U.S. production cuts offer some price support, abundant global supply and weak demand growth keep the cotton market fundamentally bearish in the near term.
