Market Recap – Last 24 Hours

U.S. soybean futures rallied on Thursday, with November contracts climbing 2% to $10.56/bu, supported by robust export sales and signs of potential yield stress in some regions. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, wrapping up this week, reported localized dryness and disease concerns, adding to bullish sentiment. However, USDA’s August report still projects a large crop at 4.29 billion bushels, down 2% from last year but with a record-high yield forecast of 53.6 bpa. Despite strong old-crop shipments, new-crop export commitments remain sluggish amid uncertainty over Chinese demand.

7-Day Outlook

• Price Direction: Futures are likely to trade sideways to slightly higher, with support near $10.30 and resistance around $10.70. Any surprise from the final Crop Tour results could spark volatility.
• Weather Impact: Forecasts call for mostly favorable conditions across the Midwest, though scattered dryness in parts of the Plains could limit late-season yield gains.
• Key Watchpoints:
  • Final Pro Farmer Crop Tour yield estimates vs. USDA projections.
  • Export pace and Chinese buying activity.
  • Macroeconomic signals, including Fed policy and currency moves, influencing commodity flows.

Bottom Line: While short-term momentum favors modest gains, ample supply and uncertain demand keep the soybean market fundamentally cautious heading into harvest.