Market Recap – Last 24 Hours

U.S. wheat futures posted modest gains on Wednesday, with CBOT September contracts closing near $5.06/bu after short-covering and spillover support from firmer corn and soybeans. Despite the uptick, prices remain under pressure, down over 6% for the month amid ample global supplies and strong Russian exports. USDA’s August report pegged U.S. wheat production at 1.93 billion bushels with an average yield of 52.7 bpa, slightly above last year. Winter wheat harvest is nearly complete, while spring wheat conditions improved marginally to about half rated good-to-excellent. Export sales were strong at 722,900 metric tons, near the high end of trade expectations.[1](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat)[2](https://www.tradingkey.com/news/commodities/251027906-reuters)[3](https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/crop0825.pdf)

7-Day Outlook

• Price Direction: Analysts expect wheat futures to remain range-bound between $4.95–$5.15/bu, with downside risk if global supply pressure persists.
• Weather Impact: Favorable conditions in the Northern Plains should aid spring wheat harvest, while no major weather threats are forecast for the next week.
• Key Watchpoints:
  • Export demand trends and competition from Black Sea suppliers.
  • Speculative positioning and potential short-covering rallies.
  • Global geopolitical developments affecting grain trade flows.

Bottom Line: While short-term technical buying offers support, abundant global supply and steady U.S. production keep the wheat market fundamentally bearish heading into late August.